Many investors in the Philippines aren't in the mood to expand yet, think tank Pantheon Macroeconomics said on Monday, despite the Marcos administration eyeing a bigger private-sector role in infrastructure and agricultural development.
"The outlook for investment in the Philippines is deteriorating. The key findings of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) latest business expectations survey suggest that a smooth transition in government and President Marcos' strong mandate alone won't be enough to catalyze capex (capital expenditures)," Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at UK-based Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a report.
"The second-quarter survey was conducted between April 18 and June 1, so at least half—if not more—of the responses were made in the knowledge of Mr. Marcos' landslide victory, which was positive from the standpoint of producing an indisputable result, but negative due to his lack of clear policy proposals," Chanco said.
Chanco noted that the survey's confidence index for the current third quarter dropped to 46.4 percent from 59.7 percent, while the share of optimistic businesses declined by 2.5 percentage points (ppts) to 50 percent.
"However, the proportion of firms that have expansion plans in the quarter slipped for the second time in a row to 18.3 percent, staying some 10 ppts below the end-2019 level. The year-over-year change in this gauge suggests that the slowdown in capex growth resumed sharply in the second quarter," Chanco added.
Chanco was worried that the combination of what he described as "no ringing business endorsement for President Marcos to see" plus consumers' depleting savings no thanks to high inflation amid the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic could temper economic rebound. "Crucially for the broader economy, the lift—and sturdy cushion—provided by household spending is unlikely to be as strong going forward. Intensifying headwinds are starting to weigh on the recovery in still-subdued long-run spending intentions."
Last week, economic managers said the Marcos administration would turn to more public-private partnerships (PPPs) given a pandemic-induced limited fiscal space.
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan noted on Friday that building-up infrastructure financing from the private sector would free-up resources for public social services such as education and healthcare.
Balisacan, who heads the state planning agency National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), reiterated that while they preferred private proponents to bankroll solicited PPP projects, which formed part of the government's infrastructure roadmaps, unsolicited pitches would still be accommodated as long as they complement the public investment plan.
Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said they plan to bid out the operations and maintenance (O&M) of some airports, like the Bohol International Airport built by the government, to private contractors.