The constituency for a "politics of return" is larger than we might suppose. We can use "Balik-Bayan" as a catchall term. It is a platform-in-the-making that calls for the nation to come to its senses again, to live up once more to the highest ideals set by its heroes, to return to its better nature. The political opposition has a key role to play in galvanizing this constituency: to help it imagine itself, and then to enable it to work collectively.In a word, this greater constituency goes beyond being anti-Duterte.

I wish to be clear. The choice we face, not only in next year's elections but today and well after the vote, is between continuing the failed, flawed, and fatal policies we can sum up as Dutertismo, and returning home to our former ideals. We must even today repudiate the changes that the Duterte presidency has wrought. But the return to a state where by and large democratic rules are followed, the political opposition is not harassed or arrested, violence in politics is avoided, the civil liberties of critics and the opposition are respected, and the country's fatal embrace of Beijing is undone (to name five asymptotic ideals out of many)—these and other common causes apply and appeal even to those nominally supportive of the Duterte administration today. The first task of democratic forces is to pitch a big tent.

But this constituency cannot be led by political purists; it cannot emerge into being if the calculation is to discount everyone who did not resist the Duterte presidency from the start. We must get the arithmetic right. We are not talking about the 39 percent who voted for Mayor Duterte in 2016; rather, we are talking about the 91 percent who said they approved of the President's performance in September 2020.

The political opposition and especially its supporters must come to terms with reality. Let me cite just two aspects of current Philippine politics, among several, which some oppositionists accept without questioning because it flatters their world view. First, that the opposition was shut out of the 2019 senatorial elections because of a seven-hour glitch. Second, that the surveys conducted by Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia cannot be trusted.

The reality of the 2019 shutout is unflattering to the opposition: a) the results were by and large correctly forecast by SWS and Pulse Asia; b) there is no proof that the computer glitch rigged the numbers, otherwise election watchdogs would have said so; c) the lack of cohesiveness of the opposition slate, in particular the undermining of Bam Aquino's candidacy by Mar Roxas' campaign, and the general isolation of the Roxas campaign from the rest of the slate, contributed to its dismal showing; d) the Duterte administration ensured the election of Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa through the use of government machinery; at the same time, the candidacies of Roxas and Aquino were the target of orchestrated dirty tricks operations (in the same way that the candidacy of Cebu Mayor Tommy Osmeña was directly targeted); and e) the decision to field only eight candidates for the Senate was a fatal mistake, reinforcing the impression that the opposition was desperate and lacked funds, available candidates, and popular support.

The integrity of the surveys has come increasingly under question, at least from those allied with the opposition, because President Duterte's approval numbers have risen even during a terribly mismanaged public health crisis. The President's ratings suffered a hit only twice in his term, once in the aftermath of Kian delos Santos' killing and another after the President vilified the God of the Catholics. But even then his popularity was only dented, not hollowed out; and since then he remains personally popular.

It is possible that fear and intimidation play a role in opinion polling in the Philippines (see my "Surveys in a time of fear," 7/30/19). It is also easy enough to understand the argument that surveys are mind-conditioning tools. But as I have argued before ("Breaking the survey mirror," 4/14/13 and "Should we trust surveys?" 4/26/16), the scientific surveys are accurate precisely because they do not influence public opinion. And as far as campaign polling is concerned, both SWS and Pulse Asia have excellent track records. In fact, survey organizations and polling firms look forward to this type of polling, because it allows them to showcase the precision and predictive power of their work. Campaign polls are their business card.

What can democratic forces do? Political psychologist Tina Montiel's "Magisterial Lecture" on active nonviolence for the Ateneo de Manila's Areté series, available on YouTube, outlines a three-stage framework for concerted action: protest, noncooperation, intervention. The first stage is where most are right now: organized action on social media; pandemic-limited street rallies; manifestos. But more needs to be done. The academic strike called by Ateneo de Manila students is a form of noncooperation; it ultimately failed, but it succeeded in focusing national attention on government inaction in the face of calamities.

I believe it is through these actions that the larger constituency begins to grow aware of itself and its potential.

As for 2022, the tasks are clear: At the risk of offending some middle-class voters, for whom this is an important issue, the opposition must make use of the legal loophole and begin pre-election campaigning now. (There is no time to lose.) It must convene a large-scale effort to complete a full Senate slate, partner with key local government coalitions, run on a pledge to renew ABS-CBN's franchise. Not least, it must consolidate its voting blocs: By and large, Bicol's 3.6 million, Central Luzon's 6.8 million, Western Visayas' 4.8 million, and Central Visayas' 4.9 million came through in 2016 and 2019.

----------------On Twitter: @jnery_newsstand, email: [email protected]